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Drivers

Drivers are underlying causal forces at work within systems, which lead to more visible manifestations of change, such as Trends and Signals. Strategic Foresight looks for Drivers by asking what factors contribute to trends. In December 2010, the 2020 Media Futures project held two Industry Roundtable sessions in Toronto. The purpose was to bring together representatives from Ontario’s Creative Cluster to discuss issues and trends they considered most important to the future of media, through a facilitated workshop format. The table below summarizes our findings:
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Attendees

The Roundtables drew approximately fifty participants from the Cluster. Included were representatives from the book, magazine, music, film, television and interactive media industries of Ontario. They included employees and executives from companies including Universal Music Canada, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Toronto Public Library (TPL), St. Joseph Media, Marble Media, and Six Shooter Records. Roughly twenty representatives attended the roundtable session for the book, magazine, and music industries, and approximately thirty attended the film, television and interactive session.

Process

The sessions took place on the December 7 and December 14, 2010. Graciously hosting these two events were the Ontario Investment and Trade Centre, and Pinewood Studios Toronto, respectively.

Attendees were provided with a summary the Trends Package developed by Suzanne Stein (Super Ordinary Lab) and Scott Smith (Changeist). The trends were organized along the STEEPV model (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political, Values). The trends included (among many other things) changes in remix culture, net neutrality policy, manufacturing and data storage.

After having an opportunity to introduce themselves and learn more about the 2020 Media Futures project, participants were split into groups based on industry then asked to look at related clusters of trends, sequentially. Participants examined social, economic, and technological trends together, then values-oriented, political, and ecological trends together. For each cluster of trends, participant groups were asked to think about what drove those trends. In a facilitated discussion, each group then ranked the resulting drivers in order of importance and impact for their own industry.

‘Jetsons’ Exercise

We concluded each roundtable gathering with a brief exercise created and led by science fiction author and 2020 Media Future researcher, Karl Schroeder. Using the title “Jetsons” to establish connotations of speculative, unbridled future possibility, this segment is designed to encourage participants to think beyond their customary mindset when considering potential futures for their industries. It was offered as a warmup for the larger Scenarios Workshop to come. In the Jetsons exercise, participants were first offered a selection of provocative questions to answer, including the following:
  • What is your most basic assumption about how your industry work? *Now, what possible event or innovation could change that by 2020?
  • What would the next iPad or equivalent for your industry look like?
  • Name a job title for your your industry that doesn’t exist now but might in 2020
Each participant then was encouraged to create a hypothetical news headline for his or her industry, a decade from now. Selected headlines included:
  • PM Justin Trudeau Announces Federal Government Will Cease to Fund CBC
  • Canada Book Fund Discontinued Due to Lack of Use; Money Allocated to New Media Creators
  • 2020 Giller Prize Awarded to First Video Game
  • Canada Post Closes Last Sorting Plant
  • Final Ontario School Closes
  • Will Rhett Leave Scarlett? You choose the ending in this personalized remake of your favourite film