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Findings

Simply put, there are no facts about the future; it is inherently uncertain. And so, strategic foresight seeks to understand and examine this uncertainty in structured ways. Our aim is to build understanding toward envisioning possible futures.

ImageFor this reason we must remind ourselves that foresight does not deliver conclusions or recommendations per se. The value in these findings and stories will not lie in any ‘authoritative’ statements we might be tempted to make. Rather, this work offers value as experiential learning (for all those involved in its creation) and (for others) as a collective expression of possibility, an emergent image of possible futures.

In this light, we wish to close with consideration of the following: principles from which our work has proceeded; patterns that arose through the work with clarity and regularity; and key questions of relevance for individuals and organizations in the cultural media cluster.

Principles


To help you assess the value and relevance of this work to your own industry or community, in the spirit of open foresight, these are some of the underlying values and assumptions guiding the effort:
  • Practice what we preach From the beginning we have sought to embody the practices and priorities of the creative cluster. We want to move people to action and to practice design thinking. It is important to us that our scenarios process and results provoke thought and create vivid images of possible futures. Thus we feature graphic design and illustration by OCAD U alumni, Ghazaleh Etezal and Ryan Lake. For similar reasons, we have also incorporated video interviews with researchers and industry experts.
  • Relevance for the Cluster This project is centred on the creative media industries. We have continually asked, ‘What does this mean for the cluster?’ How might cluster individuals, firms and associations make use of this material? How can we invite and encourage participation in this foresight project, and how can we make the outcomes understandable and memorable to a wide and diverse group?
  • Inclusive, platform-independent approach We have sought to illuminate opportunities, insights, tools and processes for both incumbents and challengers (newcomers). Our work takes an ecosystem approach and our aim is a healthy ecosystem with diversity and abundance of players and roles. We favour no platform, formula, model in and of itself, but ask how it contributes to the growth or development of the cluster as a whole.
  • Faithful to strategic foresight Why is it important or useful to consider the scenarios? Since its introduction in the Post WWII period, scenario planning has become a signature feature of strategic foresight. Scenarios offer something that can’t be derived from other methods – a way of enabling our imaginations and creativity to alert us not simply to what is but also to what might be. At sLab, our approach to strategic foresight is imbued with design thinking. It is designed to expand horizons through creative lateral thinking – to help overcome biases or blind spots, for example – while contributing to making better business decisions today.

Patterns


Proceeding from the principles above, through collaborations and consultations, we planned and executed the project. Along this path we encountered a number of patterns that rose through the noise with recurrent clarity. We will take a moment to express a few of these patterns as we experienced them. They are not all new or unique to this discussion, though some may be. Still their presence in this project is undeniable. Top patterns discerned in this project include the following:
  • Bandwidth as a critical uncertainty  This issue rose to prominence via the Delphi Survey. How we deal with charging users for internet usage will determine how content is produced, disseminated and enjoyed – as well as how competitive Canada will become in the future.
  • Social media as democratization of tools, content and expression  This pattern was amongst the clearest of all those that rang through the two Drivers roundtables.
  • Rising potential of transmedia  The importance of storytelling has implications for the whole cluster, and carries opportunities for cross sectoral collaboration. Transmedia appears as a potentially significant driver that encompasses and transcends the simpler idea of cross-platform.
  • Reconciling copyright and remix culture We see a growing demand among users to play a more participatory role as they engage with content. This driver, combined with cheap and easy content production tools, challenges existing copyright regimes and the inclination to control content and punish infringement.
  • No one-size-fits-all business models  It may be time to get used to reinventing the wheel every time you go out.
  • Loosening control vs losing control  Clearly consumers of content can play an important role in marketing and distributing it – consider what can be gained by enabling them, before crippling this through Technical Protection Measures (TPM) or Digital Rights Management (DRM).
  • Recognizing the emerging role of ‘prosumers’ in Alvin Toffler​’s prescient term. “The people formerly known as consumers,” as futurist Gerd Leonhard​ calls them, are able not only to produce, but also to facilitate entirely new marketing and distribution possibilities. Users can play active roles throughout the value web.

Questions


So what might this all mean for your organization or sector? Because we can see the patterns outlined above expressed in different ways and to varying degrees in each of the four 2020 Media Futures scenarios, a useful place to start would be to consider how you are positioned to respond to these patterns and possible futures.

To help guide thinking around preparedness, we’ve outlined a few questions. As you consider future products/services and business models:
  • Which Scenario best represents the prevailing assumptions in your organization or community?
  • Which Scenario represents a preferred future for you organization or community?
  • Are you adequately prepared for uncertainties and potential shifts related to bandwidth? How might changes here, due to increasing congestion, higher prices, removal or addition of technical or regulatory hurdles, affect your business? How does your organization or community need to transform in order to thrive in any resulting environment?
  • As more and more content producers explore transmedia and crossmedia, does your organizations have the necessary skills to embrace the full potential of this form of storytelling?
  • “The people formerly known as consumers” have clearly demonstrated their desire to play a more participatory role. What will be your organization’s or community’s response? Ignore them, or find appropriate ways to partner with them?
  • Linear perspectives on the traditional value chain see consumers bringing value at the end of the process. With possible futures speaking more to value webs, more nodes in the network let consumers bring more value. How well positioned are you to take advantage of these?
  • Traditional perspectives on copyright are being challenged by 21st century technology and values. In a world of perfect digital copies, what other goods or services can be monetized? What strategies are necessary for your organization or community to continue or thrive?
  • Loosening control may not be the same as losing it. Given that consumers can contribute to marketing and distributing content, how prepared are you to partner with them?

Looking Ahead


If there is a clear message rising above all others in this time of breakneck change, it may be that there’s no substitute for learning, agility and adaptability.
This means finding pathways toward resilience while avoiding or evolving beyond brittle structures. There are implications for formal education: what’s needed is not updated training, but true education – learning how to learn, and how to stay critical, rather than rote skills.

Finally, a few thoughts about further research. 2020 Media Futures was conceived as a two-phase project, beginning with Foresight and continuing with Innovation. The next phase builds directly on the scenarios work by creating immersive experiences: tangible futures. We will work with top innovators in the cluster to curate, commission and exhibit a network of prototypes that bring emerging opportunities to life, creating a vision of shared future possibilities. We hope you will join us in planning, developing and experiencing these “histories of the future.”