Print
  

Trends

Trends are patterns of change that indicate significant, directional shifts across the spectrum of lived experience and observation. In practicing Strategic Foresight we encourage breadth by scanning across Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political, and Values (or STEEPV) spectra. Trends have potential for growth and significant long term impact. According to veteran futurist and author of Megatrends John Naisbitt, "Trends are bottom-up, fads top-down" (Naisbitt 1982).

Our work with 2020 Media Futures partners, together with members of the wider community including technology and infrastructure companies, has discovered, documented and developed trends through a collaborative process that builds from Signals. Early in the project we conducted two Trends Workshops with project partners and other creative professionals, to elicit ideas, insights and patterns of change. The resulting Draft Trends are available on this site as a record of our working process.

A highly organized and edited Trends Package was developed by Suzanne Stein(external link) (Super Ordinary Lab, OCAD University) and Scott Smith(external link) (Changeist), beginning with the draft material. The edited Trends Package content is available as a downloadable PDF (from our Reports page), or in Web form (using the links below).


Remix Culture: Remix Culture describes the emergence of cultural artifacts and processes created to include recombination of other works, enabled by the digitization of media, as well as the availability of knowledge about others’ creations provided by open, global networks.

Education 2.0: New technologies in the classroom, and the dynamics of the Web, are transforming the ways in which students and teachers interact with educational media and practices, opening the learning experience up to many new approaches.

Game of Life: As the "social web" embeds a layer of additional data on our day-to-day lives, playfulness and competition are assuming larger roles in driving behaviors, connections and discovery.

Attention Fragmentation: The fragmentation of content into smaller bits, consumed rapidly and frequently, has both been driven by and is causing further shifts in cognitive patterns, toward shorter attention spans.

Language Clash: While English has been the dominant language of online content for the past two decades, shifting demographics of technology usage, as well as changing national populations, means this dominant position may be relinquished in the next two decades.


Hybrid Technologies: Powerful new platforms are beginning to emerge through the hybridization of two or more technologies or media, such as Internet TV, portable video, or mobile messaging, creating new possibilities to modify and extend media in new ways.

Network as Platform: The second major wave of technology innovation on the Web, known as Web 2.0, positioned the network as the primary platform for computing. This is pushing media with it out onto the so-called “cloud,” making locally stored and played media more and more irrelevant.

Atoms to Bits: More and more content is being converted from both physical or non-digital formats to digital ones for easier distribution online.

Data Traffic Crunch: Numerous forecasts show demand for digital media, coupled with the massive amounts of storage required to host both professional and DIY content, may drive us toward a bandwidth crunch in coming years.

Portability and Mobility: Mobile devices are permeating more and more areas of our lives, strongly shaping the consumption and communication behaviors of society, changing how we interact with location and each other.

Ecological


Green Considerations: Year-on-year growth in consumption of digital devices is creating environmental pressures, both around the disposal of (unused) electronics, their packaging, and the power our current devices consume.

The Problem of Stuff: Despite the promise of dematerialization implied by the digital revolution, we seem to be drowning in stuff, potentially impacting demand, and shaping tolerances for new innovations due to acquisition fatigue.

Toxic Tech?: Personal technology is not only having positive effects on our lives, but is also a source of concern about our health and its impacts on us. Issues ranging from mobile phone radiation and EMF from ubiquitous networks, to hazards in the plastic and metals in our devices, are causing concern.

Visualizing the World?: Rising amounts of data about the world around us collected through an expanding array of sensors and monitoring technologies, coupled with growing interest in data visualization, is providing us with an unprecedented window into our world.

Economic


Agile Vs. Formal Production: Traditional top-down models are increasingly running up against agile bottom-up approaches on the Web, creating a clash of cultures, but also driving innovation.

DIY Distribution: Digital tools and processes have enabled independent producers and creators to use the Internet as a distribution channel to directly connect with consumers and audiences in the process circumventing some of the cultural industries’ traditional intermediaries.

Aggregation: The vast amount of content on the Internet provides ample opportunities to become an aggregator, helping users navigate and curate consumption.

Prosumers: Inexpensive digital production tools, digital storage, the proliferation of free online social platforms, increasing broadband speeds, and computer processing power have made it easy and inexpensive for non-professionals to create content.

DIY Technology: Open-source software and hardware is making it easier for individuals and groups to assemble customized devices that provide the functions they desire.

Transmedia: The creators of properties in one medium are repurposing the their story, their characters and any other aspects of their IP in other media.

Political


A Neutral Net or Not?: Governments and private interests continue to explore the necessity of tiered Internet access to provide differential quality of service based on the status of the consumer.

IP Challenges: P2P technologies, remixing, and hacker culture's cycle of rapidly breaking technological protections is steadily eroding the position of IP protection of content worldwide. Some commercial entities have responded by altering business models to reflect this change.

Surveillance: Both online and in the physical world, issues of covert and overt surveillance are emerging as a side effect of a society in a deep embrace with technologies and networks.

Gov 2.0?: Governance enabled or enhanced via the Internet and mobile networks through new applications and services designed to create access for the wired citizen, is spreading at both local and national levels.

Values


Blurring Life and Work: The 24-hour nature of always-on access, availability of networks, and demand for productivity, mean we are losing the ability to keep work and personal consumption and behavior compartmentalized.

Inverting Privacy: The rise of social networks and boom in DIY content have together changed the nature of privacy, allowing people to expose information about themselves on public networks, often for an incentive of lower cost services or other network efficiency.

Social Collectivity: Online access to millions of other individuals and the ease with which networks of like-minded people connect, has created the foundation for new forms of technology-enabled collaboration.

Generational Differences: Differing technology uptake patterns among different generations are creating a generational divide in demand, which will further shape the delivery channels we use in the future.